Shaky Bekasi birds flu


Bekasi, the City News

http://www.kompas.com/metro/news/0509/26/091758

Bekasi was shaken by rumours of birds flu. Some concerned citizens after witnessing thousands of tails of birds puyuh that was maintained by a breeder in the Village Kalimanggis Big, the Jatikarya District, Jatisampurna, Bekasi, suddenly died for the last two day.

Berbarengan by that, a baby was one month old had the initials AP, was run off with to the hospital because of being suspected of being attacked by the virus of birds flu. The male baby that currently is treated in RS the Medika Cibitung Work, this his plan will be reconciled to the Infection Hospital (RSPI) Sulianti Saroso, Jakarta. Beforehand has had three Bekasi citizens who were treated in RSPI. they were NY Kw (27) and YR (41), both of them the citizen Cikarang North, and YN (9) the citizen Kranggan, Jatisampurna.

The death thousands of birds puyuh also had taken part in by the death of hundreds of chickens talk to (the nonpedigreed chicken) in the same location. Although being not yet it was known certain that birds puyuh and the chicken talk to that died as a result of birds flu, but some Bekasi communities especially that live in around the location of livestock breeding began to be stricken by the concern.

To confirm whether birds and the poultry died because the virus was dangerous, the Health side of the Veteriner Community (Kesmavet) the economic Service of the People and the Bekasi Co-operative was still carrying out the laboratory research. "His status was still being suspected." If indeed was infected by birds flu, then we must destroy all piaraan him, said Edy Kadarusman, the Head of the Kesmavet Field, was contacted through the telephone.

According to NY Ucum (35), the wife Junan, that was met in his house, on Sunday (25/9), during four days were endless, was counted since last Wednesday, birds puyuh kept him died suddenly. "His incident as being affected by the birds illness or Newcastle disease." His birds nguyung exclusively to the end klepek-klepek was alone. The death not direct all, is today like 150 tails will die, tomorrow 500 tails, he said.

Surprised him, when other birds were vaccinated, two minutes afterwards the birds then took part in being killed followed his colleagues. But according to Edy Kadarusman, the birds vaccination puyuh belonging to NY Ucum not was done by the official of the health, but by them themselves.

Resulting from the disaster, said Ucum, they experienced the loss materil. Necessarily they could sell 2,000 to 3.000 eggs puyuh in every time two days very much to the Wanaherang Market, Jatisampurna. Or at least they could also sell birds puyuh that. "If birds puyuh that big could be sold costing Rp 5.000/ekor, whereas that small only Rp 1.500/ekor." For the egg one him was sold by us Rp 150, explained Uncum. For Uncum, birds efforts puyuh that already since four years dilakoni him that was very beneficial.

Acknowledged by Uncum, the same disaster once he was natural several years beforehand. "To be precise around 2003 and 2004 then."
The number of birds puyuh that died also was the same the number.
We only expected his cause because of being attacked by the birds illness.
If his cause birds flu yes.
.
.
We did not yet know also, said Uncum.By the Junan family, thousands of birds puyuh belonging to him that died that had been burnt and buried in the empty gardener behind his house.The nonpedigreed chicken Apart from birds puyuh belonging to Junan, hundreds of nonpedigreed chickens (talk to) property of the citizen of the Kalimanggis Village also experienced died suddenly.
Like was said Udin bin Sanip (28). Already this Sunday ten chickens piaraan property of his father was killed without the clear cause. The "sudden death."
His morning the chicken looked healthy, eh.
.
.
Suddenly the afternoon or in the afternoon this chicken died. There was also my father's chicken that the afternoon nemplok in the tree trunk, suddenly fell and immediately died, said Udin. Unfortunately, Udin personally did not know definitely signs that were experienced to his chickens. When being asked whether the chicken that died that was bluish to the cock's comb or to foot and his chest?, Udin answered, Ow I not all that pay attention to there tuh.
No matter what like that died, his chicken was at once burnt and buried.
Then when being asked whether the chicken that died that dismissed leleran mucus in the muth part and his eyes, Udin also could not explain. As is known, the characteristics of the affected chicken birds flu, including his cock's comb was blue. This poultry breath was also out of breath while aiming his beak at sky. There was also mucus left the mouth and short-sighted this.
Berbebeda with the Bekasi citizen other that alarmed the incident, his breeder personally claimed not frightened. "Even we were still consuming the chicken and the egg," said Udin. 

Dr. Niman, CurEvents.com user theskaven speaks Malay, which is basically the same as Bahasa Indonesian. He is willing to help translate articles if we find nobody else:

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=23190

Would you be willing to post the URLs to the original Indonesian sources? Thanks. 

NY Kw is Karwati who just died and was H5N1 positive. Thus, the hospital admissions are forming a cluster in Bekasi, where birds are starting to drop like flies. 

The URLs in each story should be to the original source. 

D'oh! Sorry, blonde moment  

A one-month old with suspected avian influenza?! Too young to eat chicken and too young to crawl (let alone walk). I'm starting to think inhalation as the route of transmission or possibly h2h. Any thoughts?

John 

Since I am a pediatric respiratory physiologist I certainly agree that this seems like it was spread by inhalation of something. Also it is possible who ever handled the baby during feeding may have also recently touched a chicken. This is a very important issue for health care workers, we need to know how this thing is being spread. Many lives are at stake, including my own! 

The clusters are coming too quickly and in too many areas. The efficiency at infecting humans has definitely gone up. Its not clear if it is H5N1 in the air, or H2H. The chickens are dying and people nearby are showing up at the hospital. The last three reported admissions at the infectious disease hospital are linked to the zoo, and two are brothers, indicating H2H or both were infected at the same time at the zoo.

The easy of infection is higher than ever and its clearly into phase 5, if not 6. 

Could we be looking at it being passed by breast feeding? 

But I started to think against it because of the virus trying to get into cells that would allow it to set up housekeeping and didn't think breastmilk would be suitable for that purpose. Here's hoping some of the doctors on the board will provide more information.

John 

GI and resiratory seem to be the major way this bug attacks. Here is a senario many moms will recoginze: your busy cooking and the babe squalls stick a finger in his mouth to suck on it for a second or two while you hunt up something else to occupy him. Meanwhile you have just contaminated him with what ever was on your hands, stright to the GI tract. 

Now that makes sense.

John 

This thread is the most worrisome one I have encountered since I have tracked this virus. This surely is phase 5 and the H2H is upon us. I think we are witnessing the birth of the monster. 

Dr. Niman,
Do you know if the Indonesian H5N1 is rimantadine/amantadine sensitive? Have you seen sequences that can guide you, and in turn, us, on this? 

No sequences available, so no info on Amantadine sensitivity. 

Dr Niman, the original URL doesn't work.

can you possibly copy and paste the entire Bahasa Indonesian text? thanks. 

you can find it from

http://www.kompas.com/ 

...or still bird-to-human, contaminated feces-to-human, etc. These people raise poultry for sport, food, and companionship. Is it an absolute that it's H2H when there may be other explanations? 

not much ambiguity with this machine translation - public education:
http://www.kompas.com/utama/news/0509/27/054022.htm

CRUSH, six steps warded off birds Flu
Jakarta, Tuesday

In order to deals with the plague of birds flu (Avian influenza/AI) that attacked the Indonesian inhabitants especially the Jabotabek region, the Department of Agriculture (Deptan) rolled the campaign of six steps in the prevention.

Six steps that was encompassed in the acronym "CRUSH" this was sent by the Agriculture Minister (the Minister For Agriculture) Anton Apriantono, in Jakarta, Monday (26/9).

Quoted from his press information, the Minister For Agriculture explained again the importance maintained the cleanliness himself and the environment through the healthy and clean way of life. "His simple example like always washed the hands after contact with the poultry and his product," said the Minister For Agriculture.

Especially to susceptible children was attacked by flu, the Minister For Agriculture suggested to avoid direct contact with the poultry. "Don't sleep close to the kept poultry pen and avoided children from the poultry that was indicated was sick or died," he said explained.

Further, to the owners of the kept poultry was suggested during always guarded the cleanliness of the available poultry pen in the house. The "cleanliness of the pen will often help avoided the spreading of this virus," said Anton.

Moreover, continued he, the owners of the poultry preferably carried out disinfection efforts by means of spraying disinfectant all through the pen part as well as burying the waste of the available poultry as immediately as possible.

Disinfectant that could be used to kill the virus of birds flu, explained Anton, could be received in various chemical shops or the shop of animal medicine (poultry shop). Moreover, simply the washing could be done by making use of soap or detergent.

"Why was that important and found it easy, because the characteristics of the AI virus really were easy to die against soap or detergent and various disinfectant kinds and the other chemical," said Anton.

The minister for agriculture ask for to all the good community the owner or the poultry trader so that immediately reported to government apparatus or the local Livestock Breeding Service, if being found by the suspicion of each poultry and kept birds that was sick or died.

It was further that the Minister For Agriculture made a plea so that the community worries and stays calm as well as continue to mengkonsusmsi chicken and the egg as the source of animal protein by means of cooking as usual in the minimal temperature 80 levels celsius for one minute.

Crushed

Six steps that berakronim "CRUSH" this was detailed as follows: need not panic and worried was abundant with birds flu because his cause was the weak virus that was easy to die by hot, the sun rays and disinfectant (detergent and other), tried to get the cleanliness of the poultry pen and sprayed the disinfectant material (antihama), washed the hands with the soapy water after contact with the poultry and his product.

Further, the Protection of children and lansia from direct contact with the poultry, especially that was seen was sick. Pacify food by cooking meat and the poultry egg before before being eaten and Immediately lapor to authorised apparatus if having the poultry was sick or died aroused suspicion. 

If the mother was preparing dinner and baby started to fuss, all it would take is mother to touch the bottle nipple while quickly twisting on the cap, or maybe she could have just sat the nipple on a contaminated counter top....Bingo...You've got bird flu. 

This links seems to work

http://www.kompas.com/metro/news/0509/26/091758.htm 

It sounds like there are many possibilites for infection besides H2H at this point. If doctors are advising people not to sleep too close to the poultry, these places have GOT to be pretty unclean. 

TrashCan, are you missing the point?
There's not a soul who believes that bird flu is not being transmitted from chickens and other fowl to humans. That's not at all in question. I assume you agree as this is the direction of your postings

As you know as you've been around a long time, what is of concern in this group is whether or not the virus is at "this time", each time, transmissible casually human to human. That's one concern, and the second is virulence/mortality of the strain that evolves as human to human.

There are those who argue, like FluPig in Disease Outbreaks, that this is disease of fowl, and all one needs to do is just as the Min. of Health in Indonesia says (uncannily just like FluPig's prior and long-standing advice), and that it will stay in fowl, crossing over to all who are not careful when handling or in any way interacting with fowl.

That argument will disappear and be shown as having obfuscated and obstructed the research in and preparation for H2H bird flu, aka pandemic flu...at the moment that casual H2H is recognized.

We here who have posted here for a long time, rarely seeing your contributions to this forum although who am I to say that you've not been lurking here rather than elsewhere, and hence are as knowledgeable as are those who've been posting, express a general sense of the group that casual human to human transmission of H5N1 appears much more probable in the very near term, with others here to define for themselves when is the very near term.

Your arguments are fascinating, seeking old news and holding it up as new news. And they are without full awareness of key points discussed here previously, including the most blaringly omitted by you and the Min of Health in Indonesia, and that is that the course of 10 caps of tamiflu is NOT ENOUGH. You remain passive to that point, either as it appears irrelevant or unknown to you, or unworthy of mention. If that fact was as important to you as it is to all of us who have read the scientific study summary and excerpted parts, posted here nearly ad nauseum in the recent past, you would have immediately recognized that the Min of Health is ill-informed, and therefore none of what he says is to be trusted as he is blind to current factual understanding by the flu-conscious, those who are informed.

As this is a matter of life and death, I do think that when you wish to speak on this topic that you pull as much information as is known here into your arguments so that they may be given the full weight they will deserve.

At this time, there are many possibilities and they all focus on whether this strain of H5N1 is probably pandemic, and if so, whether this strain is sensitive to any of the 4 recognized antivirals available. 

~ Did said baby have a pet chicken??
~ Seems that I would tend to agree with TrashCanMan that obviously the pens are unkept, they do everthing with these infected birds.
~ What is stage 6? 

I think this particular outbreak in Indonesia is evidence of a more easily transmittable strain of H5N1, however, we should be seeing a rapid rise in the number of cases being admitted to hospitals if it was transmitting as easily as traditional flu. This outbreak is the most disturbing in a long line of increasingly disturbing outbreaks - but I'm not convinced that this is THE pandemic strain.

Obviously, if this current outbreak continues as it has been for the last week (several new patients a day), then there is a greater chance of this strain recombining and creating the dreaded pandemic strain.

Personally, I hope that this outbreak fades away within a few weeks. I think the best possibility is that it dead-ends in Jakarta - though I think my line of thought is merely wishful thinking.

I think our chances of have a pandemic strain emerge in this winter flu season is pretty high. 

I don't think I'm missing the point. I'm merely offering an alternative to the claim of rampant "stage 5, if not 6". Standard disclaimer: I am not a doctor nor research scientist.

I'm somewhat concerned that many people, myself included, will soon be acting upon personal opinions rather than facts. Just a moment ago, I was reading a thread about "trigger events". One of mine was almost pushed four days ago. I have been lurking here for some time, which may give me an advantage over someone that had just joined.

Confirmed H2H is a huge trigger event for me, especially since I live 45mins away from one of the largest international airports in the US (including flights from Beijing). Speaking for myself and family, it will significantly change interactions both at work and at home.

I realize that this is a matter of life and death. I also realize that those in power are ill-equipped to deal with the eventual leap to H2H. If there are absolute claims, backed up with absolute facts that we're at stage 5, then so be it. However, if the current claims of stage 5/6 don't pan out, be ready for newly joined posters to comment about "tinfoil hats". 

This "outbreak" looks like to me as if it's starting to follow a parabolic curve...1 case, 1 case, 1 case, 2 cases, 2 cases, 3 cases, 3 cases, 4 cases, 5 cases, 6 cases... you get the picture (no those are not actual case numbers, I'm just using them for reference). If this continues, the curve should start to steepen quite a bit in about 5-6 days (>50 cases per day), then another steepening about 5-6 days after that (>250 cases per day). I would also suspect we'll see cases outside Indonesia within 10 days...if this is the big one, that is (and I hope I'm completely wrong!)

Franc (penguinzee) 

I think we're all getting a little stressed, because we KNOW what can happen.

I should warn everyone that, at the first sign of a flamewar, I will declare Maria Jihad, e.g.:




Everybody, now!

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my favorite things

Cream colored ponies and crisp apple streudels
Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles
Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings
These are a few of my favorite things

Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes
Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes
Silver white winters that melt into springs
These are a few of my favorite things

When the dog bites
When the bee stings
When I'm feeling sad
I simply remember my favorite things
And then I don't feel so bad... 

What can I say?

John 

Never underestimate the power of humour in the blackest of times

Thanks folks, I'll be here all week, be sure to tip your server.... 

Quiplash,

Your poem is hilarious!

Your pic is scary. No virus will dare come near you- 

If you believe the statement that H5N1 virus infection is easily avoided by simply washing of hands/cleanliness then lets look at the converse of that statement...

You must believe that H5N1 is quite contagious if you are filthy by western standards of what is considered unclean...

If it were this easy then ALL the people of SE Asia should be infected with H5N1... forget about H2H just simply by close contact with chickens and poultry in general, their lifestyles, their customs, their lack of western hygiene…

Obviously there is more to poultry to human infection... it has simply NOT been that easy for humans to acquire H5N1... but now something has changed... maybe it is now easier for humans to catch H5N1 from the birds surrounding them... or maybe H5N1 has acquired the H2H ability we all fear...

my point is that it is not as simple as saying it is a 'fowl plague' and only those *unclean ones* will get it from the poultry/birds, they have not in mass numbers gotten it since 1997, and they have not changed their lifestyles and customs... something is different now in indonesia... 

Living just 20 minutes from San Francisco International Airport means the flu will arrive within the first 24-48 hours of it going "pandemic" anywhere in Asia. In July of 2005 SFO serviced 188,913 people deplaning from international flights from the Far East. That's roughly 6,297 people a DAY coming in from the Far East.

I'd be very surprised if a quarantine could be placed in effect BEFORE the flu arrives.

And, of course, once it arrives in the Bay Area it will spread to every community in the Bay Area within one week. There will be nowhere to run, and nowhere to hide.

As soon as this thing takes off I have a sum total of 24 hours to finalize my preparations, and less than a week before panic sets in. And there is a good chance it will have already arrived here BEFORE I find out from media sources that a pandemic is breaking out. That's the problem when you live 20 minutes from a major international airport. 

Given the proposed stage 5/6 scenario, you're three days behind. 

I feel for you. I live near LaGuardia... and there is no way I want to be trapped in a quarantined NYC. We have a place upstate to go to and I am hoping we get enough warning to get out before panic sets in. One of the reasons I haunt these boards.... that and y'all are just so darn cute sometimes  

__________________

"When someone loves you, the way they say your name is different. You just know that your name is safe in their mouth."
Billy - age 4

stephanie

 

You may be right TrashCan Man. But I'll take my chances that even though it's here - there won't be enough people infected with it to give me more than a small (<1%) chance that I'd pick it up, even in a crowded mall or other large venue.

I think one of the riskiest times will be after the pandemic strain has arrived, but BEFORE it has a chance to start making a large enough impact that shops, schools, and other major gathering places are forced to close - either due to government imposed quarantine or fear on the part of those unwilling to risk infection. 

That's the fear that I have... what happens in the in-between part when everybody is wavering? Will I still have to show up for work??

I've already decided that once the first North American case hits, I'm doing the whole facemask-eyegoggles-and latex gloves thing, whatever other people say. 

well, for all of you, you've a day notice at least.

i live in singapore. that's a 2hour plane trip away from jakarta. not particularly comforting, really. 

There was a program on Singapore on TV tonight, peterpan. 4.5 million people there, yet it's ports handle 1/3 or the world's trade, or something like that.

Which was for me very Wow!

That sure is a bottleneck, if the figure is true. If boa loading/unloading shuts where you are ppan, I hate to think what'll happen. I hope they'll consider spraying ships or something, or just going ahead as normal as possible when the pandemic is in all nations, as there will be no danger of spreading it around, though it might spread subtypes and things. 

Ah there are a few drawbacks even when you live in Atherton or Hillsborough.
Kiss Palo Alto goodbye.