In the gulf.5 day track puts it in the GoM.
Wind shear is light so this storm could develop.
NHC showing it still in the Gulf next Monday

Everyone in the gulf coast states need to watch this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...-daynl#contents

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042342
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS TOWARD NICARAGUA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...100 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND IDA
COULD APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.2N 82.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
************************************************** ***

Its very early but bears watching

Best Regards
Vog

Todays update/ Its back to a TS but the track is taking it into the central GoM next tuesday:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...-daynl#contents

Here's the advisory:

Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT31 KNHC 051749
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NICARAGUA...

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS REPLACED
THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH.

INTERESTS IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
IDA MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IDA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
************************************************** *******

Thats a LOT of water.....

Best Regards
Vog

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091108...ropical_weather

Ida now a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds

8 mins ago
MIAMI – Hurricane Ida strengthened to a Category 2 storm on Sunday, and a hurricane watch was extended to the Florida Panhandle as Ida made its way across the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane watch now stretches from southeastern Louisiana to Mexico Beach, Fla. Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Ida's winds are now near 100 mph (160 kph), and Ida could get stronger later Sunday.

The watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the next 36 hours.

The hurricane was moving to the northwest near 10 mph (17 kph), and Ida was expected to pick up steam as it moved over open waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida could reach the Gulf Coast by Tuesday, though it was unclear how strong it would be by then.

Earlier Sunday, Ida's wind and rain whipped palm trees in the Mexican resort city of Cancun. Fishermen tied their boats down, though tourists seemed to regard Ida as only a minor setback.

"I figure probably in a couple hours we'll be stuck inside," said Julie Randolph, 40, a social worker from Ormond Beach, Fla., who braved the rain to jog along the near-empty beach.

As winds picked up and intermittent rains intensified Sunday morning, restaurants and nightclubs near the waterfront began covering their windows with large pieces of plywood.

Ida is expected to interact with a weakening cold front over open seas and will most likely be a tropical storm or perhaps a low-level hurricane when it gets to the Gulf Coast, said Jack Beven, a hurricane specialist at the center. But when that will happen isn't entirely clear.

Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula remained under a hurricane warning, and a tropical storm warning was in place for the western tip of Cuba with heavy rains expected.

__________________ 
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.

Roscoe and Miss Priss

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091108...nb3ZkZWNs YXJl

La. Gov. declares state of emergency ahead of Ida

10 mins ago
BATON ROUGE, La. – Gov. Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency in Louisiana ahead of Hurricane Ida.

The declaration, signed Sunday, is considered a precaution allowing for state resources to be used for emergency or disaster situations. Officials said the Louisiana National Guard and state Wildlife and Fisheries have been placed on high alert, with equipment and personnel available if necessary. State troopers in southeast Louisiana are also on alert.

Coastal stretches of southeast Louisiana, particularly areas outside levee protection, are the main concern. Forecasts indicate those areas could see winds, rains and high tides that could create localized flooding.

Ida was a Category 2 storm Sunday as it began moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Ida strengthened to a Category 2 storm on Sunday, and a hurricane watch was extended to the Florida Panhandle as Ida made its way across the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane watch now stretches from southeastern Louisiana to Mexico Beach, Fla. Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Ida's winds are now near 100 mph (160 kph), and Ida could get stronger later Sunday.

The watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the next 36 hours.

The hurricane was moving to the northwest near 10 mph (17 kph), and Ida was expected to pick up steam as it moved over open waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida could reach the Gulf Coast by Tuesday, though it was unclear how strong it would be by then.

Earlier Sunday, Ida's wind and rain whipped palm trees in the Mexican resort city of Cancun. Fishermen tied their boats down, though tourists seemed to regard Ida as only a minor setback.

"I figure probably in a couple hours we'll be stuck inside," said Julie Randolph, 40, a social worker from Ormond Beach, Fla., who braved the rain to jog along the near-empty beach.

As winds picked up and intermittent rains intensified Sunday morning, restaurants and nightclubs near the waterfront began covering their windows with large pieces of plywood.

Ida is expected to interact with a weakening cold front over open seas and will most likely be a tropical storm or perhaps a low-level hurricane when it gets to the Gulf Coast, said Jack Beven, a hurricane specialist at the center. But when that will happen isn't entirely clear.

Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula remained under a hurricane warning, and a tropical storm warning was in place for the western tip of Cuba with heavy rains expected.

__________________ 
.
.

Roscoe and Miss Priss

Uh-huh............didn't believe me eh?????
(Actually after seeing the track yesterday I thought about asking you to move it anyway.)

Blame it on Ida - go ahead.........

Best Regards
Vog

update:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...-daynl#contents

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge

000
WTNT41 KNHC 082048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IDA HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KT...WITH
SFMR ESTIMATES OF 80-85 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 85 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND CUBA
SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT IDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY
ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MODELS FORECAST LANDFALLS ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
LANDFALL. THE HWRF IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH A LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE UKMET IS NOTABLE SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE MODEL SPREAD GETS
VERY LARGE DUE TO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK
CALLS FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE HURRICANE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT
6-12 HR. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR.
WHILE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE IDA MAKES
LANDFALL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST IDA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IDA AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL...THEN FORECASTS EXTRATROPICAL TO FINISH AFTER LANDFALL.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REQUIRES
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IDA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE
LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND STORM SURGES TO THAT AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA....POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE BEING
HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.2N 86.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 29.2N 87.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.7N 86.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 79.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


************************************************** ****

This should shake up the Gulf coast a bit.
To all members in the area - take shelter, and try to stay safe. Ho[pefully this will not be a bad one.

Best Regards
Vog

2-Oil cos shut output in Gulf due to hurricane

* BP, Marathon shut production in Gulf of Mexico

* Louisiana Offshore Oil Port stops tanker offloading

* Chevron, Anadarko evacuating workers, no output shut

* Exxon preparing for possible shutdowns (Adds BP, Marathon output shut, Exxon preparing for possible shutdowns, helicopter company comments, double byline)

By Erwin Seba and Bruce Nichols

HOUSTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. oil companies were shutting production on Sunday as they evacuated workers from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to roar across the offshore oil patch Monday before making landfall on Tuesday.

BP Plc, (BP.L) one the Gulf's largest oil producers, said on Sunday some of its production was shut and nonessential workers were evacuated from Ida's forecast path. The company does not disclose amounts of shut production.

Marathon Oil Corp (MRO.N) had shut its Ewing Bank production platform after evacuating workers, a spokeswoman said on Sunday. The Ewing Bank platform can produce 11,700 barrels of oil and 10.5 million cubic feet of natural gas a day.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, which takes in an average of 1 million barrels of foreign crude from cargo ships daily, stopped offloading tankers shortly after noon CST Sunday (1800 GMT) due to deteriorating sea conditions, according to a spokeswoman.

Chevron Corp (CVX.N) and Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC.N) said workers were being evacuated from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, but no oil production was shut in.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) said it preparing for possible shutdowns ahead of heavy weather at offshore and onshore Gulf of Mexico locations including its Mobile Bay, Alabama, natural gas field.

Oil companies began lifting workers off of platforms in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, said a helicopter company executive.

"We've had a very busy day," said Jim Shugart, executive vice president of marketing for ERA Helicopters of Lake Charles, Louisiana.

"We expect tomorrow to be pretty busy if the weather gives us a shot to complete what we're doing," Shugart said. "We started Saturday. They've been flying all day. Can't put a number on it. I would think like 30 or 40 helicopters."

Hurricane Ida was packing 100 mile-per-hour (161 kph) winds on Sunday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, which rated it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

Ida is forecast to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida sometime Tuesday morning, the Hurricane Center said.

ConocoPhillips (COP.N) said operations in the Gulf of Mexico were continuing as normal on Sunday while the company monitors the storm's progress.

The LOOP continues to supply U.S. Gulf Coast refineries from tens of millions of barrels of oil stored onshore despite the halt in tanker offloading, said LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hestermann.

The LOOP also continues receiving via pipeline 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil from the Mars and Thunder Horse production platforms in the Gulf, Hestermann said.

"We may not be offloading tankers Monday and Tuesday as well," she said.

The Gulf of Mexico accounts for 25 percent of U.S. oil production and about 15 percent of national natural gas output. according to the U.S. government.

http://www.reuters.com/article/mark...0091109?sp=true

__________________ 
Being happy doesn't mean everything is perfect.
It means you decide to see beyond the imperfections.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Live each day as if there is World enough and Time~
Arubi

Ida track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...-daynl#contents

It appears to have lost strength overnight - thank goodness:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 091153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IDA COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.8N 88.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN



Best Regards
Vog

Thanks for covering this, Vog.

a0

__________________ 
Interested in a free-wheeling discussion forum, where you can express yourself openly on any topic without worrying about moderators and long lists of rules? Try Freedom Of The.Net -- it's Freedom of the Press, at Net Speed [tm].

"The hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality." -- Dante

"If you're not part of the problem, you're part of the solution." -- Aleph Null

Not a problem.

Its weakening rapidly - so it's possible we could move this out of the LT and into the News room.

Best Regards
Vog

Ida now a TS. Not to downplay a tropical storm but..........

Please move to the News forum

Thanks
Vog

Update - Ida

I won't bother with a NWC link.
Ida is still a TS.
All interests in the SE should monitor this storm for possible severe flooding conditions.

Our local weather guessers are saying that Ida may re-form off the FLA/GA coastline as a potent low pressure system and remains stationary. This would put us in the Carolinas in a rainy pattern for the rest of the week. Rainfall predictions run from 3" to 6" or more depending upon how strong that new LP system will be.

Mods - since the threat is now that of flooding as opposed to flooding plus hurricane type winds can you please move this?

thanks
Vog

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Interested in a free-wheeling discussion forum, where you can express yourself openly on any topic without worrying about moderators and long lists of rules? Try Freedom Of The.Net -- it's Freedom of the Press, at Net Speed [tm].

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