It is interesting to watch how the MSM picks up on things.

This morning the closest thing to MSM covering Nigeria was BBC.

In the last 20 minutes (It's Noon here now.) CNN, and CBS have picked up on the confirmation os H5N1 in Nigeria.

I'll have to go turn on the TV soon to see what's happened there.., 

Very axpansive article here. They must have boots on the ground to get all this information!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007...in2417923.shtml

Bird Flu Claims First Human In Nigeria
Another Member Of Young Woman's Household Also Infected; Wider Outbreak Feared

 

CNN posts on this news here:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/afric...u.ap/index.html 

Earlier reports indicated the patient's mother had died January 4, so the expansive report has left out critical details, or there are two clusters in Lagos.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...os_Cluster.html

Suspect Qinghai H5N1 Cluster in Lagos Nigeria
Recombinomics Commentary
January 24, 2007

A mother and daughter, who recently died in mysterious circumstances in Lagos, have been suspected to have died of the deadly bird flu disease, thus, giving rise to speculations of a possible human-to-human infection of the disease in the country.

The two were said to have died within two weeks after they allegedly ate a chicken the mother bought for the family during the Christmas and New Year celebrations at a popular chicken market along Ikorodu Road, Lagos.

While the mother died on the January 4, the daughter also lost her life January 17.
The above comments describe a suspect cluster in Lagos, Nigeria. Such a cluster is not unexpected............ 

The story is covered by wire service. First was Reuters which was followed by AP. The various stories at other MSM outlets are largely various versions of the origin stories by the two wire services.

BBC did their own story, but most of the other coverage was AP (including CNN and CBS). 

Interestingly, the BBC version of this news in being carried in their 'Africa' subsection (linking to Health indirectly, where all the other H5N1 stories to date have resided) rather than directly to the 'Health' section via the Home page.

BTW thinlina no offense taken at this time :-) 

Good. Because no offense meant All of us in the same boat. 

If I may... Dr. Niman IS in fact a virologist.

NBY - that info is in the public domain.

Sorry, have not had time to keep up with all threads today or would have commented sooner. 

__________________
Bunnies love me, this I know
'Cause Arubi tells me so. 

This thread is about bird flu in Nigeria, not whether or not Dr. Niman is a virologist, or his patents or similar. Please avoid bringing up these topics, as they tend to derail threads. Thank you.

a0 

__________________
Religion is a disease of the mind.

"The hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality." -- Dante

"If you're not part of the problem, you're part of the solution." -- Aleph Null 

Thanks CS. The great undisclosed secret? Prior posts in earlier threads challenging his credentials had not been refuted by him so it's hardly surprising that I and others may have inferred that he is not a clinical virologist (which is what I meant by 'virologist'). Pure science is not of course without its adherents and advocates but I will admit to a preference for the applied sort.

So, FWIW, apologies Niman...but no 'humble pie' yet :-) Sequences are descriptive, with all the limitations that implies for pragmatic applied science. In my view, you might as easily attempt to 'predict' an effective vaccine using a Rubik's cube....


Sorry for the thread drift, folks.


Sorry Ao....cross-posted (synchronicity be damned for the coincidental posturing mountebank that it is!) 

Although several outlets have picked up the AP and Ruetrs wire story, the key questions remain unasked / unanswered.

Reuters this morning described 4 fatal cases that are almost certainly H5N1 positve. One has been confirmed in Lagos. She died January 17, while her mother died January 4. Earlier reports indicated the first three fatalities were influenza A positive. These data strongly indicate all three initial cases were H5N1 positive. This morning a fourth fatality was mentioned.

The two cases with date of death were in Lagos. Now a third family member is responding to treatment. Since this family member is alive and responding and said to also be positive, it would seem that the number of cases is five and counting, with three or more in the same family. The fact that the third family member is alive, and new samples are being collected from family members / contacts, raise question of more transmission from the confirmed case, who died January 17, to other contacts.

To muddy the picture, there are now statements that the 22F died from a chicken, but that story conveniently leaves out the death of the mother on January 4.

Right now it looks like H2H2H and spreading, but the media really is not addressing the key issues (disease onset dates and symptoms / hospitalization in recent contacts as well as infirmation to support that the hospitalized family member is also infected). 

if this is H2H2H and possibly spreading,if this was the start of the pandemic,how long would it be before it was worldwide.?. 

I don't think the custodian resposes have addressed the issue of the continued personal attacks by the same poster(s).

This is not thread drift. It is more of the same, by the same posters and a fairly similar frequency. 

Right of reply:

there's just one of me, Niman. I'm not attacking you personally; just your theorizing. Please stop calling for the prefects?

PS seen this http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=68863 

I think the prior article missed the mother.

Chinese whispers again. The associated press was late to pick up on it. 

AO, These problems keep coming up again and again. The latest poster thinks that I should be reading all of the threads and address the multiple personal attacks that are ignored by the custodians, and if not refuted, they must be true.

I really read very few of the threads on these boads, but the fact the the same person keeps posting the same nonsense after multiple warings really goes to the heart of the issue.

Why is this poster still posting here? 

I don't think this makes any sense. It's the height of Flu season in Europe, there's lots of travel between Lagos and Europe. A death from Influenza A doesn't mean it's presumptively the extremely rare H5N1. 

Let's wait and see... 

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=69432
Deaths Caused by Avian Flu Confirmed in Lagos
From Chuka Oditah in Abuja, 02.01.2007

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The multi-sectoral steering committee on Avian Influenza in Nigeria has confirmed that the deaths of two Nigerian women who died during the Christmas holidays in Lagos were caused by the dreaded avian flu virus.
In a statement issued yesterday, the committee said that an emergency meeting at the Avian Influenza Crisis Management Centre was held where it considered a report of virologists and laboratory experts that investigated the suspected human cases of Avian Influenza (AI) infection in Lagos.
The results of the tests conducted by Nigerian scientists using in-country laboratory facilities confirmed the first human case of Avian Influenza fatality in a 22-year old female who died in Lagos, Nigeria on January 17, 2007.
Another female member of the victim's household, earlier diagnosed with the clinical presentation of Avian Influenza virus (A/H5), is however responding to treatment.
The committiee stated that ìas demanded by international protocol the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Centre for Diseases Control (CDC) have received samples from the fatal case and contacts for independent assessment and confirmation. The outcome of their investigations will be made available as soon as it is available.”
Allaying concerns over the possibility of a pandemic, the committee assured that the Federal Government is strengthening surveillance efforts across the country with particular emphasis on monitoring human contacts with poultry populations to prevent animal-to-human and human-to-human infection. The surveillance system is also being extended to cover all health institutions including private facilities. Public health containment actions, especially risk communication, emergency medical care and infection control measures are being put in place. Training of personnel in the areas of laboratory, surveillance and clinical management is also receiving priority,î added the committee
It urged the general public to immediately report sick chickens to local veterinary and health officials, thoroughly cook chicken meat, wash hands thoroughly after touching chicken and/or other poultry products.
Also state and local governments were advised to strengthen their various committees on the management of Avian Influenza and also restrict intra and inter state movement of poultry as a containment measure.
Poultry were workers further advised to strictly observe appropriate biosafety and biosecurity measures. 

Dr Niman, as you know, you are a public figure with what some consider a controversial history, rightly or wrongly. Over time you surely have realized such comments will continue to arise in threads where you post. While this behavior certainly is not condoned, there is no way to prevent all of it.

You have said you dont read all the other threads at this site. Well, of course not, there are so many, who could? Not even the custodians read all of them, including all the posts in this thread.

If you are having a problem with a particular poster, you have two options. First you could just ignore their words including putting certain posters on ignore (go to your user cp, etc), Or second, as all participants at CE are asked to do, go to the Helpdesk and make your request there instead of buried within a thread where it may never be seen.

NotBornYesterday, please cooperate.

Thank you. 

__________________
.

Living well is the best revenge. 

The personal attacks are quite obvious. They have been ongoing for months. Whole threads have been started because of this behavior, and I was under the impression that it wouldn't be tolerated, but it is, which just encourages more, as was clear once again today. 

Dr. Niman,

I'm sure you are aware that I have banned one poster who often attacked you, and I have warned others. I am doing what I can to deal with the formerly hostile nature of FC discussions, and feel threads have been much better here over the last few weeks. It's unfortunate that you haven't noticed.

I do not take suspensions or bannings lightly and only take these actions when I feel they are warranted. I believe that NBY's comment was inappropriate, but do not consider it a personal attack. I'm sorry if you disagree on my stance on this matter, but I have many different issues to consider in addition to your feelings on the subject.

In the future, please don't raise these complaints in FC threads as it tends to derail them.

a0 

__________________
Religion is a disease of the mind.

"The hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality." -- Dante

"If you're not part of the problem, you're part of the solution." -- Aleph Null 

Aren't these the Nigerian cases that Nigeria swore up down and sideways were absolutely not, no way, nuthin', nuh-uh bird flu?  

It appears that a third family member, another sister/daughter is also ill with the virus and perhaps recovering, but at this late date this may well be h2h2h.
Followoing the frequent genetic pattern, the father (who called for autopsies of the sister and mother) does not appear to be ill. 

I think this is idiot kind of bullying :/ Disappointed at your intellectual level now, NBY. 

>Right now it looks like H2H2H and spreading, but the media really is not addressing the key issues (disease onset dates and symptoms / hospitalization in recent contacts as well as infirmation to support that the hospitalized family member is also infected).< Niman

Any chance that this might suggest the emergence of S227N, here? And could the method of sequencing employed in Nigeria bias against its discovery, should it exist? And, if it does emerge, what do you think the donor might be? Becoming fixed, in a mammalian reservoir? 

Thinlina, you are not being helpful at all. The subject of this thread is Bird flu in Nigeria. Please stay on topic. Thank you. 

__________________
.

Living well is the best revenge. 

For the sake on equality you should ask NBY to stay on topic, too. Just a plea from my side. The anti-Niman unjustified personal comments are not helpful in finding an efficient H5N1 vaccination in time. 

Thinlina. I asked him to cooperate earlier in this thread, and he has since then. You are not. Please stay on topic for the sake of those who want to discuss Nigeria and the implications of a pandemic. Thank you. 

__________________
.

Living well is the best revenge. 

Nigeria is a country that doesn't work on any level. It's not just poor and chaotic it is the worst situation I've seen in Africa, much worse than Zimbabwe which gets all the press today. I've been to Lagos and Benin City twice on business, last year most recently, and I feel it is the worst place I've ever seen, even worse than what I saw in Viet Nam during the war in 1969.

People are on their own... The government is corrupt--there is no worse term. Most of the medical treatment comes from what the west calls witch doctors. I've seen bodies who died in auto accidents left by the road for up to a week. I do not know how to survive there without a western life-line.


IMO BF couldn't 'pick' a place with more freedom to rage than Nigeria. 

I'm not sure it was another relative - the articles I've seen say "another female member" of the victim's household. Very unspecific. 

Welcome, alfacentari, and thanks for the firsthand insights into Nigeria. Very discouraging.

MomCares 

Another wife? 

Speaking of genetic relationships and husbands & wives -- just a note that Nigeria has one of the highest rates of cousin-marriage in the world -- something like the third highest rate in the world, up there with Saudia Arabia, Iraq & Pakistan. So, you never know what the genetic relationships might be in some of the countries we talk about here.

http://www.consang.net/global_prevalence/map.html 

Yeah.

Funny how they kept on saying that.

I just knew they had something up their sleeves! 

Here's my summary of the Nigeria situation as it stands right now:

There's still only one confirmed death and one suspect death in the same family. I beleive that some news services got the unconfirmed death reported as a hospitalized case who was responding to treatment..,

That would make it H2H, not a two level transmission.

The other suspected deaths in Nigeria is in two other provinces entirely.

WHO has this update today:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2007_01_31a/en/index.html



Reuters had this report of four deaths:

http://za.today.reuters.com/news/Ne...IA-20070131.XML



So, two family members, an unrelated case in Tararba and an unrelated case in Borno.

And of course there's the separate issue of "samples from 14 eople being tested..," We don't know a whole hell of a lot about them.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070130...dflu_nigeria_dc

 

The WHO issued a situation report on Nigeria yesterday. It does not contain all the details we have learned so far, but at least they are on top of it..,

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2007_01_31a/en/index.html

 

I just found this gem of an article. A very complete report on the Nigeria situation! The article aslo contains information on the virus in other countries as well.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/co...107nigeria.html

 

FG Confirms Human Bird Flu in Nigeria

Daily Trust (Abuja)
NEWS
February 1, 2007
Posted to the web February 1, 2007

By Andrew Walker
Abuja


A Nigerian woman who died of flu symptoms has tested positive to the H5N1 bird flu virus, Information Minister, Frank Nweke, said on Wednesday, the first reported death from the virus in West Africa.

Three other deaths are suspected to be from bird flu, but are awaiting confirmation.

The woman from Lagos is the first confirmed human victim of bird flu in sub-Saharan Africa, after the deadly disease was first found in poultry in Nigeria a year ago.

"Last night, our team of 13 scientists were able to conclusively identify the case of avian influenza in a 22-year-old female who died in Lagos," Nweke told a news conference.

The woman was one of 14 people from whom samples were taken for tests that were concluded on Tuesday. Four of the samples were from people who died. Samples are now being sent to foreign laboratories for confirmation.

The victim of the confir-med case is among the other three suspected fatalities. The other people who died are a poultry worker from Taraba state and a man from Borno state

Nigeria is one of the three countries regarded by experts as the weakest areas in the global attempt to stem the spread of the virus.

Bird flu has killed at least 164 people around the globe since it reemerged in Asia in 2003, according to the most recent figures from the World Health Organisation. The death toll includes 11 fatalities in Egypt.

Officials in Maiduguri said they culled 1000 birds as a precaution after suspected outbreaks in six farms. Samples were sent to the Veterinary Research Institute (VOM), in Plateau state and results are being awaited.

Tuesday, Daily Trust reported a WHO spokesman in Geneva who said the samples had tested negative for H5N1. That report was based on an international agency report from Geneva. By Wednesday morning, the news agency had corrected the report to say the samples were "inconclusive". The Nigerian authorities had declined comments until yesterday.

Dr Abdulsalam Nasidi, Ministry of Health official, said the woman victim from Lagos died not as a result of eating chicken infected with the disease. He said: "She died as a result of contact with the birds."

He said it will be difficult to contract the disease through eating as our mode of cooking is different from the western pattern, but advised that all birds must be properly cooked before consumption.

Dr Nasidi said his commi-ttee will collaborate with the health ministry to regulate the influx of chickens into Lagos.



http://allafrica.com/stories/printa...0702010426.html 

CORRECTED - Dead Nigerian woman tests positive for bird flu

Thu Feb 1, 2007 1:39 PM GMT



(Corrects first paragraph to say woman died from bird flu after handling infected chicken)

By Tume Ahemba

LAGOS (Reuters) - A 22-year-old woman died from bird flu after handling infected chicken, Nigeria said on Wednesday, confirming the first human fatality in sub-Saharan Africa.

The government believes three other people may have died of the H5N1 virus in Africa's most populous nation, but tests proved inconclusive.

"Last night our team of 13 scientists were able to conclusively identify the case of avian influenza in a 22-year-old female who died in Lagos," Information Minister Frank Nweke told a news conference.

Nigeria is one of three countries regarded by experts as the weakest areas in the global attempt to stem the virus's spread.

Bird flu has killed at least 164 people worldwide since it emerged in Asia in 2003 and travelled westwards with migrating birds and the poultry trade.
Experts fear it could spark a deadly pandemic if it mutates into a form that passes easily from person to person.

The Lagos woman's mother also died after handling the same bird but tests on samples taken from her body were inconclusive.

Another member of the household in Nigeria's commercial capital displayed symptoms of bird flu but was responding to treatment in hospital, Nweke said.

"The three people feathered and disembowelled the chicken so we believe that is how they were infected," said Abdulsalam Nasidi, a health ministry official.

Direct contact with infected poultry is the most common way for people to catch bird flu. Millions of Nigerians keep poultry in their backyards and in the absence of refrigerators in most households, birds are transported and sold live, and killed just before eating.

Health experts say it is not possible to contract bird flu through eating infected meat if the meat has been fully cooked at normal temperatures.
The two other suspected human victims were in the north-eastern states of Borno and Taraba. Samples from the Lagos woman are being sent to foreign laboratories for confirmation.

MORE TESTS

The World Health Organisation has not been informed about the Nigerian findings and would need to conduct its own tests before confirming them, spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

A human case of bird flu in Nigeria was to be expected because of the experience in other countries, such as Indonesia, which have huge poultry populations and where chickens live in close proximity to humans.

"It does not change anything from a public health point of view," Hartl said. "It had to happen sooner or later. It is following a pattern seen in other countries."

Hartl said WHO would also expect to see a surge in suspect cases after the statement by the Nigerian government as more people come forward displaying possible symptoms.

Nigeria detected the virus in chicken in northern Kaduna state a year ago. The virus has since spread to 17 of Nigeria's 36 states despite measures such as culling, quarantine and bans on transporting live poultry.

Experts warn surveillance in Nigeria may not be completely effective because of poor health services. Many Nigerians die young of a variety of diseases and few families can afford the luxury of a doctor to determine the cause of death.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/art...C1-ArticlePage2