[CanadaSue]

Okay, this is maybe sensational & way too much info is missing. The ProMed post first:

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/askus/f?p=2400:1001:8874102339033409189::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,27384


***AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN - RUSSIA (SAINT PETERSBURG): SUSPECTED

Date: Tue 30 Nov 2004
From: ProMED-mail correspondent Natalya Pchenitchnaia <promed@promedmail.org>
Source: Fontanka.ru, Saint Petersburg internet newspaper, Tue 30 Nov 2004
[translated by Mod.NR, edited]
<http://www.fontanka.ru/102504>


Russia: suspected human cases of avian influenza in St Petersburg
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2 cases of "bird" influenza transmitted from person to person were recorded
this year [2004] in Saint Petersburg. Previously, physicians thought that
the disease could be contracted only from infected birds, but now it seems
that this is not so. Specialists now consider that "bird" influenza is a direct danger to humans because of the absence of pre-existing immunity.

The symptoms of avian influenza are the following: high fever, difficulties in breathing, coughing, sore throat, muscle pains, and conjunctivitis. According to physicians, this form of influenza can lead to pneumonia and can cause complications involving the heart and kidneys. The disease is especially serious for young children and can be fatal. So far, avian influenza is being treated with the same procedures as employed in the treatment of ordinary influenza. But epidemiologists are warning that the virus may mutate, and drugs currently used [?] will become ineffective.

An epidemic of ordinary influenza in St Petersburg is not expected until
Jan-Feb 2005. In the meantime, medical authorities are recommending
vaccination for 3 categories of people: the elderly, children, and those with chronic diseases. Vaccination is also being recommended for those who work in health care, transportation, education, and sales areas.

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[This report has to be treated with considerable skepticism, as it offers no information on how the diagnosis was achieved, nor the basis for the conclusion of person to person transmission, nor the precise antigenic
identity of the "bird" virus. Limited person to person transmission of H7N7
avian influenza was observed during the epidemic of avian influenza in poultry in the Netherlands in 2003. There is sparse evidence for person to person transmission of H5N5 avian influenza virus during the extensive outbreaks of avian influenza in East Asia in 2004. In general, in the absence of outbreaks of avian influenza, there is little or no direct transmission of avian viruses to humans. If person to person transmission of avian influenza were occurring in the Saint Petersburg region, it would imply that extensive outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry were occurring in this area of Russia. - Mod.CP]***

Okay first - WHEN did theses happen & is THIS what led to the recent warnings out of Russia about an expected pandemic there?

HOw do they know it was person to person & in TWO cases? Does the WHO have this? Do they have detailed case records, samples... have they sequenced this?

Are they talking H5N1, H7N7 or H9N2... or a new one?

'To be treated with skepticism - yes, very much so, To demand more informtaion - absolutely.

I don't usually post these typres of reports - but that they would announce this at all, even lacking in detail in scaring the crap out of me.

Gimme a sec to find some info on St. Petersburg...

[Potemkin]

The same place where medicine resistant TB is rampant?

Yow!

[CanadaSue]

To be frank, Russian public health sucks but they DO know flu. The have yearly epidemics that make ours look tame & I can't see the ProMed mod posting the translation siply for sensation. ProMed simply doesn't do that. If this is a genune concern, BBC & other serious European press will pick it up.

I know squat about St. Petersburg except it's a major port city, close to Scandanavia, etc. Gimme 45 minutes to becomes an instant expert...

[Potemkin]

Note the date of publication.

http://www.spbvedomosti.ru/pages/english.shtml

September 23, 2002
HUNTING SEASON STARTS IN THE LENINGRAD OBLAST
The hunting season officially started in the Leningrad Oblast' ( the rural area surrounding St. Petersburg), after the local administration lifted the ban on visits to forests imposed in August when local forests and peat bogs suffered from severe fires caused by unusually hot and dry weather. Beginning from this weekend hunters are allowed to hunt ducks and bears , from next week they will be allowed to hunt wild boars. The forests are also open to mushroom picking enthusiasts.

[CanadaSue]

Leningrad - I know it as Leningrad.

Post city, close to Finland. Huge tourism magnet. Population of 5 million. Transport hub.

The more I see, the more I hope this is a HUGE mistake.

Okay, any air travel buffs around?

What flies out of there & where to? What about train lines - what comes IN to the city & where from?

[CanadaSue]

Russian pandemic scare story. A few things in it don't make sense - that may be translation but I need to check on a gew things there. Don't think they're related to this story - nothing in Pravda on this one but I'm checking some more oddball souces.

[Pepper]

Sue, here is the October 4th, 2004 article from Pradva News.

Two new influenza types to hit Russia this fall
10/04/2004 19:09

According to RIA "Novosti" vaccination against influenza starts on 1 October in Russia. This fall and winter Russians will face "familiar" influenza viruses of type A (subtypes H3N1 and H1N1) and type B. Strains of this viruses are being a part of all anti-influenza vaccines.

Gennady Onischenko the Chief Sanitary Doctor of Russia expects 1,5 - 2 million people to be ill with influenza and 22 million with acute respiratory diseases (ARD) in this epidemic season.

The growth of incidence with flu and ARD will start already in the middle of November, and the epidemic will start in January. Risk groups include children, seniors, people with chronic somatic diseases and also medics and transport workers. Of this people 20 million should be vaccinated.

The two new influenza types are expected in Russia this fall are "Shanghai" (strain of the A type - the so-called "bird flu") and "Futsyan" (strain of the B type).

Experts of the World Health Organization (WHO) think that the world is on the brink of pandemic (global epidemic ) of flu. And although Russian scientists aren't predicting the global pandemic they do expect the appearance of the two new flu types.

These are very young strains, discovered in 2002, and their impact on humans is known insufficiently, tells GZT.Ru. Flu of type B circulates only among humans while type A is equally dangerous for Man and animals. Viruses of the latter type are considered the most dangerous due to their abruptness and disposition to mutate.

"Influenza pandemics happen 3-4 times a century and they are usually forestalled by massive infective episodes in animals; up to 60% of country's population becomes ill and thousands die in a pandemic", - tells the professor of the Institute of Virusology of RAMS, Nikolai Kaverin.

WHO declared pandemic situation as its experts fear the possible transmission of viruses from birds to people. Some specialists think that infective episodes in birds are a signal telling about the near global epidemic of flu among people.

Russian medics aren't waiting for a flu pandemic and they do not agree with the forecast from the WHO. "Flu pandemic can happen but only in the years," - assures Yuri Gendon, the Professor of the Institute of Viral Preparations of RAMS.

The beginning of October is the best time to vaccinate.

Medics recommend vaccinating before the epidemic starts to secure yourself and your family.

http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/95/380/14373_vaccine.html

[CanadaSue]

I've been staring at that article off & on for a few hours. H3N1 is 'familiar'? Either we have some some errors happening or I've missed an entire new human strain family developing here. I've not found 'Futsyan' amywhere these last few months. I gave up a few weeks ago - will try again. If both were named in 2002, you'd THINK info would be obtainable. It probably is & I just don't know enough to seek in the right places.

Must of the rest of the article is either poorly translated, (I suspect that)_, or flat out wrong. But getting that sort of info out of Russia is as difficult as China.

[Shadowfane]

futsyan might acctually = fujian