[CanadaSue]

Okay, now the WHO is definitely getting into 'woo woo' territory. Here's the article:

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1102159208514&call_pageid=968256289824&col=968705899037

A microbiologist - one Kennedy Shortruidge &yes I'll be checking his CV - is caliming that a flu pandemic not only will take millions of human lives but if it consist of H5N1 & gets into other bird species, it could cause a world wide collapse in ecosystems. I'm assuming that's what he means when he speaks of the 'global ecosystem' collapsing.

That's quite a claim. The world consists of several varied biomes & ecosystems & I know of no past pandemic that has posed such a threat. Certainly H5N1 or any strain that jumps to new species in a drastic way would drastically affect food chains, various ecological relationships, etc. but the possibly of glabal disaster is really pushing the envelop.

I'm going to check his published work & try to see where this is coming from. Nothing on the WHO H5N1 site about this but they're behind in writing up recent findings, conferences, etc.

[CanadaSue]

Lots of references here to Dr. Shortridge & I'm ploughing through them. I keep finding interesting little tidbits which are worth mentioning but not worthy of threads of their own. I'll just toss them in as I find them. Here's an interesting one:

***While many residents of Hong Kong rural areas have antibodies to all known bird flu viruses, most humans would have no defense against this avian-flu virus.***

http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~issues/spring98/medrounds_hkchicken.html

Well that tells me a few things. People CAN be infected & develop antibodies to all H types of flu affecting birds. HK has then, seen at various times within the lifespan of citizens there, ALL H types of avian flu. Some may not have caused illness in birds but were certainly present. They may be subclinically endemic or perhaps they come in at times during migrations.

So this begs the question - if we were to sample people in areas where poultry is raised, bought & sold in much the same manner as was customary in HK pre the 97 outbreak, might we find the same results? Antibodies to many different avian strains? I wonder how many of those have ALREADY caused illness, perhaps mild, in humans? Beofre 97, it was thought H4 strains were the next candidates for a human jump. I wonder now, was that based on how much of it was being sampled in birds or human antibodies?

So many questions, so few answers...

[Pepper]

I'm starting to get mighty nervous about this flu news.


snip---
Microbiologist Kennedy Shortridge, who helped Hong Kong fight a 1997 bird flu outbreak that crossed over to humans and killed six people, said he feared such a pandemic could badly damage the world's ecosystem in addition to causing human deaths.

"If this virus gets into bird life beyond poultry, we could wreck the global ecosystem and we could be on the verge of an 'ecocide,' that is the destruction of an ecosystem," Shortridge said.

He said that damage to bird populations in a particular region could "upset the whole balance of nature" and "have a knock-on effect right throughout the system, affecting other aspects of nature as well."

Meanwhile, Hong Kong and mainland researchers said they have developed a new diagnostic test for bird flu that could detect whether someone is infected by the virus within two hours, the Apple Daily newspaper reported.

The new test for the H5N1 bird flu virus has a 90 percent accuracy rate and is much quicker in yielding results than current tests, which take three to five days, University of Hong Kong microbiologist Guan Yi was quoted as saying.

Guan declined to confirm the report Saturday, saying an announcement would be made later this week.

Bird flu this year has killed 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam, and millions of chickens across Asia. However, there has been no concrete evidence yet of human-to-human transmission of the disease.

Shortridge, an honorary professor at both the University of Hong Kong and the University of Auckland in New Zealand, said the fact that the H5N1 virus has moved from chickens to the domestic duck population in China is "a very worrying sign."

"We are in uncharted waters. We must be aware of the potential dangers that lie ahead," he said in a telephone interview.

Shortridge urged regional governments to be more open with information in their fight against the disease.

more here
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/041204/ap/d86oo3a82.html

[CanadaSue]

Have a little something about the origins of Highly Pathogenic H5N1. Dr. Kennedy Shortridge, judging by the articles about him & publications BY him appears to be 'Dr. H5N1' or one of them. He did some of the work with mice that was recently published. Yeah I had this article before & 'lost' it. It seems just before 1997 HK, there was a whole lot of reassorting going on in H9N2 avian flu & studies indicate that some of these reassortments are similar to what they think had occured with H5N1. They're not sure which happened first - new H9N2 from H5N1 origins or vice versa.

Still, I'd love to see more modern papers - yes I'm hunting - to see what H5N1s are up to these days. There may be some very strong basis for his fears about ecosystems. If I'mn going to go out on a limb - & bounce - it almost suggests that they're seeing more changes occur from samples taken 'in the wild' & the changes which evoked such serious infection in mice, (& felines), may be robust enough to either affect other species as is, or further change to do so. If that happens or even if more birds start displaying illness & dying, ecosystems could be in a wold of hurt. Many are pretty delicate now as it is. Is any of this making sense to anybody? I just have a sick feeling I've got a visual, (the reading), tiger by the tale & I daren't let go...

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/96/16/9363#Abstract

[CanadaSue]

I've referenced the abstract of the article. Freaking scary reading:

http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/73/7/5903

In non-medical English it's stating that they wanted to model same H5N1 viral behaviour in a non-human mammal. Enter the research mice. All 4 H5N1 virus replicated nicely in the lungs of mice but with varying degrees of lethality. The most lethal showed the ability to involve many organ systems & this included the brain. The strain that did that had NOT shown any specific genetic adaptations - it was just ABLE to infect the nervous system of the mouse.

They followed that with testing of a vax made from an H5N3 - fairly close to H5N1. 2 fomulations were used - one straight formulation & one with alum added. Alum is an ADJUVENT - it boosts the effectiveness of the vaccine. Those mice injected in the muscle with vax - no alum required - were 100% protected against a LETHAL infective dose of H5N1. For challenge with non-lethal doses, 70% of animals who were given the vax without alum were protected, (didn't get sick) & of those given the vax with alum - 100% were protected.

They concluded that in the event of a pandemic, you might be able to use other than H5N1 candidate vax. Uh okay, I don't know enough to comment on that part.

The adjuvents are certainly useful then for those in whom the vaccine doesn't work that well - the elderly & others who already have frail immune systems.

Want more?

[shalym]

Please, ma'am, may we have some more?

Shari

[CanadaSue]

I feel a bout of insomnia coming on - lol.

Seriously, I've been messing in flu & related nasties all day & even cheesecake isn't soothing me right now. I need a half hour break or so & possible a decontamination shower - rofl.

[goatlady]

So far, CS, you are doing a mightly nice job of convincing me to REALLY become reclusive! Keep the info coming anyway.

[CanadaSue]

We know this infects housecats as well as leopards & tigers. Imagine if it got into rare felid populations & decimated them? Or for that matter, other rare species...

Overall these species may be in severe decline & losing their role in their ecosystems but still, a loss is a loss. I suppose the fear is that it might get into avian speices that are important to predators along flyways. These avians may be crucial prey species at breeding time & their absence in terms of food MAY affect those species. I really don't know & don't know what ecosystems the good doctor had in mind when he made those comments.

Wish I did.

[Deb Mc]

Evening all!

Imo, it would be more likely that there would be *some* disruptions to some of the ecosystems, though I doubt to the extent that some might claim. It sorta sounds like sensationalism.

I mean if some species have been able to become immune to certain diseases (i.e. "Carriers"), then perhaps some individuals of some species would also be able to survive and continue the species.

Another example would be the claim that certain human populations (North Europe - I believe it may be Scandanavians) have a natural immunity to smallpox. It's that kind of potential adaptability/variability that could serve as "insurance" for species survival.

Fwiw...

[helen]

Dear God!

Is my mule at risk ...?

[CanadaSue]

I don't know if mules CAN get flu - horses do. You have a mule, you tell me.

I think Deb is right, certain gaps might occur, we could lose some marginal species not to flu directly but because theur prey was wiped or losses in other species from flu threw off their ecosystem. I don't have a CLUE about any of it, too much of a spider webbie aspect to it - tons of connections between species - many unknown or not well understood.

No human illness has ever been 100% fatal per se. Dlu doesn't even come close to those sorts of case fatality rates. Watch - we'll lose more due to 'post pandemic stupids' than we will the disease itself. But death is death.

[driveshesaid]

Thinking about what you said about cats, Sue. And the interconnected/spider-webby thing...If housecats were to die off in too great of numbers, then we'd have a vermin problem. With rats and mice come all kinds of nasties...fleas/plague...uhhhI'm drawing a blank on specific diseases, but you know what I mean...vermin are disease carriers. That could be very not pretty.

Eliminating the "hot-button" words in the report, this actually could be a concern. When one or two support threads of a web are broken, the whole thing collapses.

We think of vermin as bad things, but they are helpful in the decomposition/composting of proteins (meat/flesh) in the ecosystem. Bacteria can only do so much, at a much slower speed.

Birds also digest proteins (flesh/insects), transport seeds/pollen, are an important item in the food chain (eggs/meat for carnivores/not just humans).

Okay, now I'm just scaring the cr*p outta myself. :eek: It sounded "woo-woo" at first blush, but this guy may NOT be that far out!

drive
who's cuddling the housecat and thinking outdoors is getting even more dangerous for the scruffy furball.

[CanadaSue]

He does raise valid concerns & you do a better job of detailing what I THINK is what he was trying to get across. I suspect the reporter was looking for a way to play it up. But yeah, start throwing off ecological balances too badly & we start seeing secondary illnesses caused by that. Perhaps not necessarily HERE but why not? Plague, rabies, hantavirus; just a few candidates. How about crops consumed by rodents, etc?

It's easy to focus on the illness itself but secondary considerations can quickly become more major.