[Pepper]

As if vaccine shortages, wars, terrorism, and Vioxx weren't scary enough, some folks who should know better are making predictions of worldwide contagion without cure. Officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) have sounded the alarm about a "bird flu" pandemic. Spokesmen warned of "billions" falling sick and "millions" of deaths. Millions in Southeast Asia have indeed died — but so far almost all of them (except for 32 humans) have been feathered.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, in the course of his resignation remarks, morphed from his previously calm demeanor into hysteria. His bizarre farewell speech contained words of advice for terrorists about our country's weakest links — and more bird-flu warnings. Thompson said, referring to the flu, that "there is a really huge bomb out there that could adversely impact on the health care of the world." Uh-oh.

Maybe Thompson can be excused for his end-of-the-world predictions — he has no science background — but we expect the WHO to be able to distinguish real health threats from theoretical ones. Instead, they seem to be acting in a needlessly alarmist way.

One WHO official said a bird-flu pandemic could kill up to 100 million people — if the virus mutated into an uncontrollable form of human influenza. Another such expert advised public-health officials to start planning for overwhelmed hospitals, the construction of isolation wards, and widespread absenteeism — if the pandemic occurs. Still another opined that there is "no doubt" that there will be another pandemic (global outbreaks have occurred every few decades, the last two being in 1957 and 1968). He continued, "...We are closer to the next pandemic than we have ever been before."

Of course, we will eventually have another pandemic — sometime in the future. We are, therefore, getting closer all the time. And we won't have any vaccine to prevent this wholesale carnage for about two years. (One of the companies trying to make such a vaccine is Chiron, whose recent efforts to produce uncontaminated flu vaccine for the U.S. came to naught only two months ago.)

The new strain of bird flu, technically termed Influenza A(H5N1), has indeed ravaged Asian avians, as noted above. But the virus is genetically distinct from the flu bugs that infect humans every winter, and bird (as well as other animal) flu strains generally do not have the ability to make people sick. While it is cause for concern that 44 humans have contracted the virus from birds or fowl, and that 32 of them have died — a worrisome mortality rate of over 70 percent, compared with a mortality rate of well under 1 percent for the common flu and 5 percent for the devastating 1918-1919 pandemic — there are no documented cases of human-to-human transmission and only two cases suspected, one in Thailand and one in Vietnam. A major requirement for a viral epidemic is person-to-person spread (communicability).

So, should we head for the hills? No. There is no evidence of human-to-human transmission, despite many millions of sick and dead birds. And it is obviously extremely difficult to transmit infection to humans from birds — again, the numbers tell the tale.

It's a good idea to be prepared, as the recent scarcity of flu vaccine has demonstrated. But the dire warnings about billions sick and millions dead from an onrushing bird-flu pandemic seem overblown, to say the least. We should keep doing the right things to avoid infection: hand washing and covering your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing. Public health officials should make sure to stockpile anti-flu medications, which would probably work against the avian strain, if what is now theoretical becomes real. And we should use the methods of prevention we have — including the vaccine against pneumonia, which is greatly underutilized even though it protects against the proximate cause of death in elderly people suffering from severe influenza.

Also, stay home from work, seek medical attention if you're sick, and get plenty of rest. Just don't stay awake worrying about bird flu — it's bad for your health.

— Gilbert Ross is executive and medical director of the American Council on Science and Health.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/ross200412140854.asp

[CanadaSue]

The WHO is warning about the POTENTIAL for H5N1 to turn into a pandemic strain. They're certainly not saying it's in our face at this time. It's certainly true that the tone of their alarms has become increasingly strident & we're hearing more warnings. Is it fear mongering? I'm not sure it is.

We only have history to go by when it comes to pandemic flu & that history is incomplete. The best we can do is take the pieces we have & fit them together with as much skill as possible, trying to determine fact from specualtion. It can be damned hard to do without coming over as too cynical or too optimistic.

In the decade before it went pandemic, there are indications Spanish Flu was 'finding its feet'. Certainly a number of nations saw unusual outbreaks, unusual by the fact that they came out of nowhere, sometimes affected other than the 'usual suspects' & some made people sick in odd ways for flu. This didn't seem to follow any particular pattern. As we got closer to the pandemic years however, there were in retrospect certain ominous signs. Some flu outbreaks led to a higher than normal incidence of pneumonia. This was, understandably, often put down to the war. Hundreds of thousands of troops living under horrible conditions, stressed out, poorly fed, was it any wonder many became ill? Both sides of the fight had outbreaks in their training camps & front line & rear units. It was simply considered part of the war. In wars, disease & infection has traditionally resulted in as many if not more, deaths than any cullet or bomb.

But these outbreaks increased as the pandemic years approached & another thing happened that no one connected to a pandemic event later. Different animals became ill. France saw an epidemic of what we're now pretty sure was flu in horsesthe year before the pandemic took off. It killed a great many of them - most in some areas. Monkeys, moose, other animals began falling ill with what, in retrospect, looks suspciously like flu.

I was surprised when Tommy Thompson went 'off the reservation' so to speak. It's not typical to see comments of this sort from any departing Cabinet MInister. No, the man may not have the background in science flu types do but he DOES have a very able staff with almost instant access to that kind of expertise. He didn't pull such comments out of his butt & it was correctly stated - he used the word COULD. The possibility can't be denied.

However the author is correct in this. Until today, there is no, (publicly out there), confirmed case of human to human transmission & I personally won't worry about the first one. What I'll be looking for is a repeat or a proven chain of transmission. The more generations in the chain, the higher the chance of lateral spread.

I don't think the warnings are overblown. They're part of a RANGE of numbers given & is it fair to NOT give both the low & high end estimates? The fact will probably lie somewhere in the middle but that middle is a mother by anyone's standards. But yes, as of now, this is a theoretcial possibility. I think what the WHO is really trying to accomplish is one of the jobs of warning what could happen. Because frankly, ain't a country in the world ready for the reailty when it hits.

And I do think it's increasingly a matter of when. More & more avian species infected, now felines... the countries most affected can't afford detailed surveys of native & migratory species - not in time or equipment or manpower. Safest to assume it's spread to more native species than we'd like to contemplate.

No it's not something I allow to keep me awake & I don't chew my nails over it. I'll save that for when I have REAL indications we have a pandemic problem. And when we get to that point...

You'll see me on here with the biggest, screamiest, attention grabbing post title going. I have a set of indications I'm looking for - there's a bit of built in fluidity but certain headsup will literally have me all night checking & rechecking various venus for the first confirmation of pandemic.

And I'll be right here with it, hopefully as well with the time for the scheduled news conferences, etc. And I won't wait for those to get my butt out there & get the last few things I need.